Sunday, June 29, 2008

The prediction markets


Summarized from Jeff Matthews, who is not making this up -


"On Monday, everyone will be watching our fundraising totals to see if we can compete with the McCain campaign. This month is the first test of our grassroots fundraising strategy since we declared our independence from the broken campaign finance system....Make a donation of $30 or more by midnight on Monday, June 30th, and show off your support with an Obama logo T-shirt...Obama Raises $22 Million in May, His Weakest Month This Year Associated Press June 20, 2008 10:23 p.m.


"WASHINGTON -- Democrat Barack Obama raised $22 million in May for his presidential campaign, his weakest fund-raising month this year, and ended the month with $43 million cash on hand, the campaign reported Friday. In Wall Street's parlance, the Obama campaign "missed the number" in the month of May. Sure, $22 million in one month is a lot of money, even in Presidential politics. But the Obama campaign's earnings 'momentum' slowed sharply in May: that $22 million was down 29% sequentially from the $31 million raised in April. Well, Intrade has buyers willing to pay 65.3 for the right to earn 100 if Obama wins the election. Not to mention the Swift-Boaters that have turned their sites from Hillary to Obama: Michael Bloomberg actually had to publicly deny that Obama is secretly a Muslim. There's one more reason we'd bet Obama won't stay at 65.3 for very long: he's the front-runner now, and America likes front-runners to earn their place. So, while we never recommend stocks in these pages, if Obama was a stock, we'd short him right here.

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